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It’s not 1993-1994 in the government bond markets. Unemployment is still way...
Government bonds have been selling off over the past month. Since mid October the 10 year gilt yield has risen from 2.85% to 3.63%, the 10 year bund from 2.25% to 3.00%, and the 10 year US Treasury...
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A light in the storm – the German economic boom
There is a shining light amidst the storm of the European sovereign debt crisis. Europe’s largest economy, Germany, is booming. Since June 2009, the German Federal Statistical Office has had the...
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Ireland (austerity) vs Iceland (default) – who’s winning? And a Twitter update…
Back in March we wrote about Iceland’s response to the banking crisis, and how it differed to other countries that stepped in to support their banking systems. This week, Paul Krugman commented about...
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Why you shouldn’t just read the headlines on US unemployment
Everyone is familiar with the deterioration in US labour market. Figures out today show that the unemployment rate has more than doubled to 9.1% from its pre-crisis low of 4.4% in 2007. The question is...
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Competitiveness confusion reigns supreme
Many question how the heavily indebted European nations will get out of the mess they are in. Absent a break-up of the single currency unit, most economists point to a significant reduction in unit...
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4 Housing Markets, One Country
The Eurozone has become a very extreme example of the dangers inherent of creating a single currency area populated with a myriad of different countries and regions. There is little doubt that the...
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From The Politics Of Economics To The Politics Of Society
As we had a three day weekend last week I used the opportunity of an extra day off to catch up on some reading. One of the pieces I read struck me as particularly pertinent given the elections on the...
View ArticleClimate change – bzirc monetary policy
As investors we get used to living within certain recognised bounds. For example, it has been commonly assumed that interest rates cannot be sub-zero. There has been the odd historical quirk when we’ve...
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Wage inflation: Upward pressure on German labour costs in 2013
When I left Germany more than three and a half years ago, it was a good place to live. Germany’s polarising football superpower Bayern Munich had just failed to win the Bundesliga, horse meat was...
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Should we worry about recent rises in capacity utilisation?
In recent years the use of capacity utilisation (CU) as a leading indicator for inflation, and hence for interest rates, has fallen somewhat out of favour. The large amount of spare capacity in the...
View ArticleVideo: whilst the market gets excited about unemployment falling to 6.5%, the...
I spent a couple of days in New York last week seeing economists and academics. The US Treasury market had just seen a significant sell-off, with 10 year yields rising from 1.63% at the start of May,...
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Mr 7 percent – exploring unemployment in the UK
The governor at the Bank of England stepped forward last week with guidance about its future plans and conditions regarding the tightening of monetary policy. Ben gave his views on the announcement...
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It’s a knockout – why the gilt and currency markets have no love for Carney’s...
Millwall FC wasn’t the only team to trek up to Nottingham yesterday from London and to come back empty handed (at the hands of the mighty, mighty Forest). Team Carney from the Bank of England also had...
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Jobless claims and Fed policy
Today’s release of jobless claims shows that the US economy is continuing its healthy response to the stimulus provided by the Fed. Momentum in the US labour force remains in a positive direction. The...
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Full time, not part time, economic recovery
When meeting UK clients we obviously spend a lot of time discussing employment and the relative strength of the UK economy. The chart below from the Bank of England shows the recovery in employment in...
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A shifting Beveridge Curve – Does the US have a long term structural...
I am sure that many of us are familiar with some of the better known economic theories concerning unemployment which have previously been discussed or alluded to on this blog e.g. Okun’s Law and the...
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Mr 7 percent – exploring unemployment in the UK
The governor at the Bank of England stepped forward last week with guidance about its future plans and conditions regarding the tightening of monetary policy. Ben gave his views on the announcement...
View ArticleClik here to view.
It’s a knockout – why the gilt and currency markets have no love for Carney’s...
Millwall FC wasn’t the only team to trek up to Nottingham yesterday from London and to come back empty handed (at the hands of the mighty, mighty Forest). Team Carney from the Bank of England also had...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Jobless claims and Fed policy
Today’s release of jobless claims shows that the US economy is continuing its healthy response to the stimulus provided by the Fed. Momentum in the US labour force remains in a positive direction. The...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Full time, not part time, economic recovery
When meeting UK clients we obviously spend a lot of time discussing employment and the relative strength of the UK economy. The chart below from the Bank of England shows the recovery in employment in...
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